The resumption of world trade should exceed expectations, even amid tensions in the global supply chain, points out the World Trade Organization (WTO). The biggest risk weighing on global production and foreign trade remains the covid-19 pandemic.

The organization now forecasts a 10.8% growth in world merchandise trade in volume, instead of the 8% estimated in March. For next year, the expectation is for expansion of 4.7% (compared to 4% estimated before), moderating as the trade in goods returns to the long-term trend of before the pandemic.

The WTO points out problems on the supply side, such as the scarcity of semiconductors and the accumulated delay in ports, which can harm exports and imports in certain sectors, but without a greater impact on global results.
As for inflation, if the shocks that hit some sectors continue, central banks may react by raising interest rates sooner than expected and this, says the WTO, could have negative repercussions that will end up hitting exports and imports.
The biggest downside risks continue to come from the covid-19 pandemic, even more so if more deadly variants emerge in the coming months. The particularly contagious Delta variant has already prompted governments to resume some containment measures.
Once again, the WTO notes that the resumption of exports and imports occurs amid regional divergences. In the Middle East, South America, and Africa, the recovery of exports is weaker. In South America, the expectation is the growth of 7.2% in exports this year, decreasing to the expansion of 2% in the next year.
On the import side, it grew no less than 19.9% in volume in South America, indicating a resumption of activity in the region. But it moderates enough to 2.1% in 2022.
Trade-in services should still lag behind the expansion of trade in goods, especially in the sectors linked to travel and entertainment.
WTO projections announced today take into account a 5.3% expansion of the world economy, compared to 5.1% projected in March. For the year, the expectation is for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to slow down to 4.1%, still higher than the 3.8% forecast in March.